Who voted for change!
In this latest data-driven research, we analyzed who voted for change from a gender, sectarian, and geographic perspective. This was possible by using the data produced by the Data Liberation Project (DLP) in collaboration with the Friedrich Naumann Foundation Beirut (FNF). The DLP aims to make electoral data, specifically the raw results, freely, easily, and openly available. Thus, the 2022, 2018, 2009, 2005, 2000, and 1996 parliamentary elections results are freely available in machine-readable, open-access format. You can access the research paper here
When the clock strikes midnight!
At Midnight this Monday, President Aoun becomes Mr. Michel Aoun, a Lebanese citizen. This transition is the ancient Greeks’ greatest gift to humanity, a peaceful transition of power that does not involve familial inheritance. I was always struck by that almost magical moment when a citizen becomes More. Nothing illustrates that better than every four or eight years when a US President flanked by a General holding the nuclear football, with the power to end life as we know it, becomes an ordinary citizen while another person becomes More. Indeed, at noon last January 20, 2020, President Trump became an ordinary mortal, while Mr. Biden became the President of the…
Analyzing the number of lists
After a tumultuous month filled with Machiavellian political machinations, the electoral lists for the next election in Lebanon are set! 103 lists were officially registered, vying for 128 parliamentary seats in 15 districts! It was a bumpy ride, filled with backstabbing, bluffs, and some last minutes surprises. Most political parties waited until the last possible moment before unveiling their lists. Negotiations were still ongoing hours before the close of the registration period last Monday at midnight! All sides kept their cards hidden for as long as possible, maximizing their strength and weakening their opponents. There was a significant upsurge on the last day, and the final number of lists rose…
Early indicators from the expatriates voting!
Tomorrow the parliamentary electoral process in Lebanon begins, starting with the expatriates voting worldwide. The voting will take place over two days, Friday for the country, in which the weekend falls on that day, and then Sunday for the rest. The elections will occur in 59 countries, up from 40 in 2018, in over 205 polling centers and 596 polling stations. countries centers bureau registered 2018 40 113 232 82,965 2022 59 205 596 225,114 The primary indicators will be the turnout and how smoothly and well organized the elections will be. Unfortunately, the detailed results will only be known when the general elections results are tallied. Indeed, the…
US elections Lesson Learned for Lebanon
April 19, 2021 The new US president has been elected, sworn in, and his new administration is up and running. After an ‘eventful’ election night that stretched into a week, a long counting period, unending litigations, ending with an attack on the US capitol. Personally, it was very interesting to follow the electoral process, from polling to projections, the ups and downs that accompanied the elections, and the inner working of a modern democracy, and how it resists authoritarian creep. What made it even more captivating was how the elections results and a new US administration will impact Lebanon, the region, and the world. This series of articles will try…
A first look at the numbers!
The detailed results are finally out, so after a thorough analysis of the turnout and other general numbers, I arrived to these conclusions. Unfortunately, before going into the analysis, it is important to note that I discovered two errors in the documents published on the official website (one added 62,000 and the other added 315,000 to number of registered, heavily skewing the turnout). I tried to correct them to the best of my ability. You can find more details about these errors in here. Fortunately, these errors are limited to the registered numbers, and do NOT affect the results. However, the fact that there are two errors might indicate that…