• Analysis

    What is happening in Idlib province?

    Several weeks ago, the Syrian regime decided to take one of the last holdouts of the rebels, in Idlib. The area is right at the border with Turkey, and after the Sochi agreement, Turkey has a military presence there in the form of several observation posts, ensuring that the Assad Regime does not cross and attack Idlib and its surrounding…

  • Analysis,  opinion

    Will Prime Minister Hassan Diab be another Hoss or a Mikati?

    Prime Minister Hassan Diab government has finally won the parliament’s confidence vote this Tuesday, with one of the lowest scores in the modern history of Lebanon, managing only 63 votes out of 128. The day witnessed massive popular protests, that tried to derail the confidence vote, by impeding the MPs from reaching parliament and mustering the quorum. The people in…

  • Uncategorized

    What is next?

    At first glance, Lebanon’s political system seems very complicated, mixing constitutional stipulations, customs, and age-old traditions.  In particular, the resignation and the formation of a new government appear to be a very chaotic and complex process. However, if you dig deep enough, there is a clear blue print for the next steps. In this article I will try to explain…

  • Analysis

    The By-elections that was not!

    The citizens of Tyr’s district, in South Lebanon were supposed to vote in a by-election this Sunday, the 15th of September. Indeed, Nawaf Moussaoui Hezbollah’s MP resigned or was asked to resign by his superiors, after making one mistake too many. Two months ago, he attacked late President Bashir Gemyael, in an overtly sectarian manner, forcing Hezbollah to apologize and…

  • Analysis

    Analysis of Tripoli’s By-election results!

    The election was uneventful, with expected results. Yet a lot of interesting insight could have been gleamed by studying the raw data. Unfortunately, the results (both the final tabulation and the raw data) has been, once more, published by the Ministry of Interior in a PDF format. So, it will take efforts to convert, reorganizing and then cross link the…

  • Analysis,  DLP

    The last word on Tripoli: It’s a turnout game!

    PM Saad Hariri’s Future Movement (FM), former PM Najeeb Mikati’s Azem Movement, Safadi, and even General Rifi have joined a grand alliance and are supporting MP Dima Jamali, whose election was nulled by the constitutional Council. Meanwhile, the contender, Mr. Taha Naji and his list headed by Mr. Faisal Karameh who filed the motion against MP Jamali’s election, has refused…

  • Analysis,  DLP

    A late winter surprise!

    In a surprising development, nine months after May 2018 parliamentary elections, the Constitutional Council decided to annul one of the results of the North 2 district, removing MP Dima Jamali ( one of only six female MPs in Lebanon) from office, and calling for new elections! The elections should be held within two months, on majoritarian basis, in the Tripoli sub…

  • Analysis,  DLP

    The Data Liberation Project

    A few days after the May 6, 2018 parliamentary, the Ministry of Interior (MOI) published the results. The initial results were in a PDF format, with limited information. They lacked a breakdown of participation or voting per district. As an avid analyst with an interest in data and patterns recognition, that was very frustrating. Fortunately, the MOI released the full…

  • Analysis

    A detailed analysis of SAIDA's 2018 electoral result!

    Rafik Hariri’s legacy can be traced back to this once small city, on the Mediterranean, with its plentiful orange orchards and long history. He was born there, and his siblings and distant family are still living in the city. Rafik Hariri helped rebuild and renovated Saida’s infrastructure after the 1982 Israeli invasion, building roads, school, and various projects. Thus, the…

  • Analysis

    Details of the mistakes

    Unfortunately, as i mentioned in my analysis of the turnout numbers, there are two mistakes that i was able to catch in the official numbers. the first one: it concerns Zahleh’s fifth counting committee, where a ballot box usually holding 600 registered persons plus or minus (as inferred by most ballot boxes in this sub-committee) had 315,617 as the number…