Analysis

  • Analysis

    The Prime Minister elections, and government formation in Lebanon

    The Prime Minister elections and government formation in Lebanon By Ibrahim Jouhari Following the elections of Speaker Berri, the time is now for the choosing of a new Prime Minister followed by government formation. Although Lebanon’s political system might seem complicated and archaic, there is a clear order for the next few steps that will lead to the nomination of a new PM and the formation of the government. This article will try to explain these steps and what they entail clearly. Binding Consultations: The first step will be for the President to call for binding consultations[1]. It is an election disguised under another term. All 128 new members of…

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  • Analysis

    Early indicators from the expatriates voting!

    Tomorrow the parliamentary electoral process in Lebanon begins, starting with the expatriates voting worldwide. The voting will take place over two days, Friday for the country, in which the weekend falls on that day, and then Sunday for the rest. The elections will occur in 59 countries, up from 40 in 2018, in over 205 polling centers and 596 polling stations.   countries centers bureau registered 2018 40 113 232 82,965 2022 59 205 596 225,114 The primary indicators will be the turnout and how smoothly and well organized the elections will be. Unfortunately, the detailed results will only be known when the general elections results are tallied. Indeed, the…

  • Analysis

    A shift in the political landscape

    By Ibrahim Jouhari Former PM Saad Hariri announced the suspension of his personal and political party’s participation in Lebanese political life in an emotional address. The former PM explained that despite his many efforts to compromise, some are unwilling to let the country move forward. He stressed that this negative trend has been amplified by a growing Iranian hegemony, in a tumultuous regional dynamic, with the international community’s lack of decisiveness. A lot of ink will be spilled, and time spent to analyze the consequences of this decision. The repercussions will be widespread, and it will have a long-lasting effect on the Sunni community and its political aspirations, and the…

  • Analysis,  opinion

    Why?

    Since the start of the severe Lebanese crisis, more than two years ago, practically nothing has been done. No reforms to speak of, no capital control, no aid measures, nothing! The situation keeps getting worse, illustrated by an ever-falling exchange rate, while the central bank issues ad hoc decisions with no consultations, preparations, or declared plan. Small depositors are being bled dry by a universal haircut approaching 70 to 80%, prices keep rising, and the cost of most services have increased by 300 to 400%, fuel is now ten times more expensive than a year ago, same for electricity, while mobile and internet prices are about to follow suit. So…

  • Analysis

    Security and elections, first and foremost!

    For the last two years Lebanon has been described as “facing an unprecedented crisis, on the edge of the abyss, teetering on a narrow ledge, …”. Then as the situation worsened, this shifted to “Lebanon needs a soft or controlled landing, we need to avoid a lost decade, measures need to be taken to escape a hard crash”. Unfortunately, if one just looks outside, or takes a short walk, he will witness the long lines for fuel, the empty pharmacies, and the dark houses devoid of electricity, it has become obvious that we have entered the third phase, “the dreaded crash”. There is a significant number of governance theories  and…

  • Analysis

    US elections Lesson learned for Lebanon, PART II

    Part 1 of this series explored how the ease and openness of the electoral process positively impacted the turnout and overall legitimacy of elections. However, it is equally important to examine the importance of increasing the involvement and participation of youth, women, and other marginalized groups in the electoral process. Their vote is crucial to strengthen democratic, liberal, and institutional ideals and stem the rising tide of populism and authoritarianism. Therefore, Part 2 of this series will explore the different methods to increase the political participation of youth, women, and minorities in the electoral process, emphasizing how to reach them through social media. Meanwhile, keeping in line with the basic premises…

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  • Analysis

    US elections Lesson Learned for Lebanon

    April 19, 2021 The new US president has been elected, sworn in, and his new administration is up and running. After an ‘eventful’ election night that stretched into a week, a long counting period, unending litigations, ending with an attack on the US capitol. Personally, it was very interesting to follow the electoral process, from polling to projections, the ups and downs that accompanied the elections, and the inner working of a modern democracy, and how it resists authoritarian creep. What made it even more captivating was how the elections results and a new US administration will impact Lebanon, the region, and the world. This series of articles will try…

  • Analysis,  DLP

    The Data Liberation Project

    A few days after the May 6, 2018 parliamentary, the Ministry of Interior (MOI) published the results. The initial results were in a PDF format, with limited information. They lacked a breakdown of participation or voting per district. As an avid analyst with an interest in data and patterns recognition, that was very frustrating. Fortunately, the MOI released the full results a week later. However, the MOI also published these results in a static PDF format, grouped by the preliminary counting committees, severely limiting any possible analysis and cross linkage. Consequently, I started working on possible methods to convert and reorganize the data to make it easily accessible, and then…

  • Analysis

    A detailed analysis of SAIDA’s 2018 electoral result!

    Rafik Hariri’s legacy can be traced back to this once small city, on the Mediterranean, with its plentiful orange orchards and long history. He was born there, and his siblings and distant family are still living in the city. Rafik Hariri helped rebuild and renovated Saida’s infrastructure after the 1982 Israeli invasion, building roads, school, and various projects. Thus, the two Sunni MPs of the city have always had a symbolic importance. In 2009, for the first time since the formation of the Future Movement (FM) party,  it was able to win both seats. Unfortunately, in 2018 FM failed to repeat this feat and their old adversary Oussam Saad took…

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  • Analysis

    Details of the mistakes

    Unfortunately, as i mentioned in my analysis of the turnout numbers, there are two mistakes that i was able to catch in the official numbers. the first one: it concerns Zahleh’s fifth counting committee, where a ballot box usually holding 600 registered persons plus or minus (as inferred by most ballot boxes in this sub-committee) had 315,617 as the number of registered. so to solve this issue i assumed that it was 617. The second is similar to the first, but in Tripoli. Here too, a ballot that was supposed to hold in 600’s was put in for 62,581. again i corrected it as 625.