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    Tyre – Zahrani* , a tough battle to break a monopoly!

    The deep South, the stronghold of Speaker Nabih Berri and his party Amal. Despite Hezbollah pressure and influence, Speaker Berri has been able to cement his control over this area, while keeping it relatively liberal. Indeed, you can still have a drink on the seaside, while enjoying a swim in Tyre, as opposed to the rest of the south, which have fallen under Hezbollah more strict and conservative hegemony. Historically, the region has been under the influence of a few feudal families like the As’ad and the Ousseiran, with a significant communist and leftist presence. With the advent of Moussa Sader and the civil war in 1975, these families lost…

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    Saida – Jezzine, the smallest district and biggest battle!

    The saida Jezzine district is the smallest among the 15 others, with only 5 seats. Officially there are around 120,000 are registered and it is expected that around 70,000 will vote (60%, with more voting in Saida than in Jezzine), indicating a minimum threshold of around 14,000. Saida is the third largest city in Lebanon, after Beirut and Tripoli. It is a Sunni stronghold, forming more 80% of its population. Saida’s two parliamentary seats have always been coveted, especially after the end of the civil war, when Rafik Hariri, who originated from the small coastal city entered the political arena. Before the war, Saida had one seat, and it was fiercely…

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  • Analysis

    The list are finally out!

    After a tumultuous month, filled with Machiavelli’s political machinations and Shakespearean plots, the electoral lists for the next election in Lebanon, are set! 77 lists were officially registered, vying for 128 parliamentary seats in 15 districts! It was a bumpy ride, filled with backstabbing, bluffs, and some last minutes surprises. Most political parties waited until the last possible moment, before unveiling their lists. Intense negotiations were still ongoing even hours before the deadline on midnight of the 26 March. All sides were keeping their cards hidden for as long as possible, trying to maximize their strength and weaken their opponents. Immense pressure was applied on various candidates to change their…

  • Analysis

    A market in full swing!

    With the period for individual candidates registration closing fast (it ends on March 7, 60 days before elections), it is a general stamped! Every major party has announced or will soon announce their list of candidates, as an opening bid in a very complicated and multi layered poker game. However, the field of candidates will rapidly be filled with too many candidates, some known, and others not, some affiliated to the parties, but many not… There are many causes for this exuberance, but mainly: First, fielding a large number of candidates will raise the price of any future negotiation or alliance. “I am sorry but I already announce Mr. X…

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    What is this about?

    This website aims to spread knowledge about the upcoming Lebanese parliamentary election, focusing on informing its readers on the law, how to vote, and then the possible outcome. You can find important information in our resources page, such as a map of the 15 districts, a full copy of the electoral law Arabic and English, and many more. Please feel free to contact us for any inquiries of questions. Moreover, once enough polls and projections of the result have been published (we will make sure to link and copy them in here), we will use these numbers and several methods, to construct a Poll of Polls. This poll will have…

  • Polls

    Polls: Zahleh

    in this poll of Zhaleh district balance of power, made by Kamal Fghaleh, published in Al-Akhbar Newspaper, several pertinent points can be made, but first i will summarize the main findings, and you can check the link and the picture below for full details: Party name Projected votes Projected % Future Movement 28,004 24.1 Hezbollah 22,654 15.6 FPM (Aoun) 14,612 12.6 Popular bloc (Skaff) 14,074 12.1 Lebanese Forces 14,074 12.1 1- The projected threshold in this district is 16,360 achievable by many lists, especially if they work together. 2- Future Movement has the largest project share with 28,000 votes, which translates into 1.7 seats. 3- Zahleh is under a big…

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    Trend Analysis explained!

    Similarly, to yesterday’s explanation of the POLL of POLLS (PoPs), we will use some fictive polls to illustrate the trend analysis. Yesterday’s articles explained the PoPs. For the trend analysis, we need to receive a few more polls from the same statistics companies or pollsters, spread out over a longer period of time, for the same district. For example, let us assume that we have an additional two polls for Zahleh, taken over a period of two weeks:   Fictive poll 1 (with two sets of numbers, taken one week apart): Party name Projected % 1st poll Projected % 2nd poll, a week after Trend Future Movement 22.1 20.1 -2…

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    How does a POLL of POLLS work?

    The system, used by Nate Silver’s 538 and Real Clear Politics, focuses on aggregating the largest number of polls and surveys. Then the idea is to calculate an average poll, which should reflect reality with more accuracy. Moreover, the additional focus of such a system could be more on the trends that could be calculated by comparing the polls of the same resource relative to time. Let me demonstrate the POLL of POLLS calculation: With the elections still several months away, few polls have been made public. There is one made for the Zahleh district in the Bekaa (the poll was made by Fghali and published in Al Akhbar newspaper). Here…