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    That dreaded test of wills! The culmination of months of hard work, outreach, and dealmaking. It will be a very long day, especially for all individuals directly involved in the process, from poll officers, party monitors, the LAF and ISF members, and most importantly, the voters! So what to look for? However, it is important to note that the final results will take a long time to announce officially. Some credible reports are talking of Tuesday at the earliest. This is caused by the significant upsurge of expatriate votes that will not be speedily tallied. On the other hand, most electoral campaigns, especially well-organized and prepared parties, will have the…

  • Analysis

    Early indicators from the expatriates voting!

    Tomorrow the parliamentary electoral process in Lebanon begins, starting with the expatriates voting worldwide. The voting will take place over two days, Friday for the country, in which the weekend falls on that day, and then Sunday for the rest. The elections will occur in 59 countries, up from 40 in 2018, in over 205 polling centers and 596 polling stations.   countries centers bureau registered 2018 40 113 232 82,965 2022 59 205 596 225,114 The primary indicators will be the turnout and how smoothly and well organized the elections will be. Unfortunately, the detailed results will only be known when the general elections results are tallied. Indeed, the…

  • Analysis,  opinion


    Since the start of the severe Lebanese crisis, more than two years ago, practically nothing has been done. No reforms to speak of, no capital control, no aid measures, nothing! The situation keeps getting worse, illustrated by an ever-falling exchange rate, while the central bank issues ad hoc decisions with no consultations, preparations, or declared plan. Small depositors are being bled dry by a universal haircut approaching 70 to 80%, prices keep rising, and the cost of most services have increased by 300 to 400%, fuel is now ten times more expensive than a year ago, same for electricity, while mobile and internet prices are about to follow suit. So…

  • Analysis

    Security and elections, first and foremost!

    For the last two years Lebanon has been described as “facing an unprecedented crisis, on the edge of the abyss, teetering on a narrow ledge, …”. Then as the situation worsened, this shifted to “Lebanon needs a soft or controlled landing, we need to avoid a lost decade, measures need to be taken to escape a hard crash”. Unfortunately, if one just looks outside, or takes a short walk, he will witness the long lines for fuel, the empty pharmacies, and the dark houses devoid of electricity, it has become obvious that we have entered the third phase, “the dreaded crash”. There is a significant number of governance theories  and…

  • Analysis

    US elections Lesson learned for Lebanon, PART II

    Part 1 of this series explored how the ease and openness of the electoral process positively impacted the turnout and overall legitimacy of elections. However, it is equally important to examine the importance of increasing the involvement and participation of youth, women, and other marginalized groups in the electoral process. Their vote is crucial to strengthen democratic, liberal, and institutional ideals and stem the rising tide of populism and authoritarianism. Therefore, Part 2 of this series will explore the different methods to increase the political participation of youth, women, and minorities in the electoral process, emphasizing how to reach them through social media. Meanwhile, keeping in line with the basic premises…

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  • Analysis,  DLP

    The Data Liberation Project

    A few days after the May 6, 2018 parliamentary, the Ministry of Interior (MOI) published the results. The initial results were in a PDF format, with limited information. They lacked a breakdown of participation or voting per district. As an avid analyst with an interest in data and patterns recognition, that was very frustrating. Fortunately, the MOI released the full results a week later. However, the MOI also published these results in a static PDF format, grouped by the preliminary counting committees, severely limiting any possible analysis and cross linkage. Consequently, I started working on possible methods to convert and reorganize the data to make it easily accessible, and then…

  • Analysis

    A detailed analysis of SAIDA’s 2018 electoral result!

    Rafik Hariri’s legacy can be traced back to this once small city, on the Mediterranean, with its plentiful orange orchards and long history. He was born there, and his siblings and distant family are still living in the city. Rafik Hariri helped rebuild and renovated Saida’s infrastructure after the 1982 Israeli invasion, building roads, school, and various projects. Thus, the two Sunni MPs of the city have always had a symbolic importance. In 2009, for the first time since the formation of the Future Movement (FM) party,  it was able to win both seats. Unfortunately, in 2018 FM failed to repeat this feat and their old adversary Oussam Saad took…

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  • Analysis

    Details of the mistakes

    Unfortunately, as i mentioned in my analysis of the turnout numbers, there are two mistakes that i was able to catch in the official numbers. the first one: it concerns Zahleh’s fifth counting committee, where a ballot box usually holding 600 registered persons plus or minus (as inferred by most ballot boxes in this sub-committee) had 315,617 as the number of registered. so to solve this issue i assumed that it was 617. The second is similar to the first, but in Tripoli. Here too, a ballot that was supposed to hold in 600’s was put in for 62,581. again i corrected it as 625.

  • Analysis

    A first look at the numbers!

    The detailed results are finally out, so after a thorough analysis of the turnout and other general numbers, I arrived to these conclusions. Unfortunately, before going into the analysis, it is important to note that I discovered two errors in the documents published on the official website (one added 62,000 and the other added 315,000 to number of registered, heavily skewing the turnout). I tried to correct them to the best of my ability. You can find more details about these errors in here. Fortunately, these errors are limited to the registered numbers, and do NOT affect the results. However, the fact that there are two errors might indicate that…

  • Uncategorized

    Still no official results!

    It’s been three days, and no official results has been made available. the Minister of Interior announced on TV the list of the winning candidates, without Akkar, where apparently recounts were being done. The results were read live, and no detailed results were supplied. Officially that was it. Meanwhile, unofficial numbers are floating around, such as these results of Beirut-2, and a semi-official list of winning candidates and their preferential votes was circulated on whatsapp. We are still missing number of voters, invalid and white ballots, lists votes, losing candidates results… Unfortunately, the Interior Ministry official website is still empty and the wait goes on!