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E-day!

That dreaded test of wills! The culmination of months of hard work, outreach, and dealmaking. It will be a very long day, especially for all individuals directly involved in the process, from poll officers, party monitors, the LAF and ISF members, and most importantly, the voters!

So what to look for?

However, it is important to note that the final results will take a long time to announce officially. Some credible reports are talking of Tuesday at the earliest. This is caused by the significant upsurge of expatriate votes that will not be speedily tallied. On the other hand, most electoral campaigns, especially well-organized and prepared parties, will have the local results calculated by midnight. However, if the results are close, it will be hard to know the complete seat allocations and which candidates won because the expatriate votes will impact the results. This is even more pronounced in four districts where the number of out-of-country voters exceeded the 2018 threshold.

DistrictExpats votesVote by threshold2018 threshold
Beirut 16,3201.165,458
Beirut 216,3461.2513,075
North 317,4471.5111,580
ML 417,0661.3013,126

The most critical number during E-day will be turnout. In 2018 MOIM was publishing turnout numbers every two hours throughout the day. The Minister publicly stated that the ministry would do the same this year. Therefore, we will be able to use the numbers for 2018 and project the total turnout rate for 2022, and refine this projection throughout the day. Stay tuned to our tweets and posts on social media starting at 9:00 am.

Additionally, it will be worthwhile to focus on the turnout in the main Sunni area, starting in the early morning, which will answer the main question of e-day, upon which most of the results will depend. Therefore, we will also be tracking the partial turnout numbers throughout the day of Tripoli, Beirut, Akkar, and Saida.

The logistics will be critical! Thursday voting by poll officers was marred with irregularities, long lines, and many problems. For example, LADE reported party monitors trying to cut the lines and allow their supporters to vote rapidly, and many poll officials who had no idea about the voting process. This is worrisome, as these officials  are supposed to guide voters on e-day!

Lastly, GO VOTE!!

See you tomorrow for many updates and numbers!

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