Prileminiary analysis!

The official results and detailed numbers are still not out, casting a lengthening shadow on the electoral process.

Nevertheless, there are a few conclusion that can already be made:

1- the monolithic iron control of the Shiite duo (Amal and Hezbollah) over their constituency and regions, is intact, almost absolute, and crushing. They won a full slate in two southern regions, in a PROPORTIONAL law, with the precense of a small but significant minority in one of these regions.

2- the Lebanese Forces have significantly benefitted from the law, as their support is strong but scattered over many regions. Their numbers of MPs jumped by over 100%

3- The Aounist were able to limit their losses and maintain a large (possibly the largest) parliamentary block

4- Future Movement faced a daunting fight and had two challenges to overcome (check this for a more detailed analysis): a- energize their base and encourage the reluctant to come back into the fold. b- to significantly raise the turnout in all their regions, to increase the threshold and consolidate their support, while limiting the small lists ability to win seats. FM was successful in energizing its base but failed at raising the turnout. The result? FM parliamentary block has shrunk.

5- consequently, following the previous points, we now have a large block (that should reach 40+) formed by Hezbollah and Amal, including around 10 Sunni MPs, in addition to all the Shiite MPs except one.

Once the final results and detailed numbers are out, I will write a series of analytical articles.