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    Trend Analysis explained!

    Similarly, to yesterday’s explanation of the POLL of POLLS (PoPs), we will use some fictive polls to illustrate the trend analysis. Yesterday’s articles explained the PoPs. For the trend analysis, we need to receive a few more polls from the same statistics companies or pollsters, spread out over a longer period of time, for the same district. For example, let us assume that we have an additional two polls for Zahleh, taken over a period of two weeks:   Fictive poll 1 (with two sets of numbers, taken one week apart): Party name Projected % 1st poll Projected % 2nd poll, a week after Trend Future Movement 22.1 20.1 -2…

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    How does a POLL of POLLS work?

    The system, used by Nate Silver’s 538 and Real Clear Politics, focuses on aggregating the largest number of polls and surveys. Then the idea is to calculate an average poll, which should reflect reality with more accuracy. Moreover, the additional focus of such a system could be more on the trends that could be calculated by comparing the polls of the same resource relative to time. Let me demonstrate the POLL of POLLS calculation: With the elections still several months away, few polls have been made public. There is one made for the Zahleh district in the Bekaa (the poll was made by Fghali and published in Al Akhbar newspaper). Here…